India's GDP growth for the latest quarter came in at 7.8%, higher than the forecast of 7%. This sparked a furore in the country. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing The Guardian.
Subhash Garg, a former finance secretary under Narendra Modi's government and now a critic, reframed what Modi called a "herculean feat" as mere smoke and mirrors. According to Garg, the government revised last year's current-price GDP downwards to inflate this year's number. He believes the real growth is only 2.6%.
The assertion, made on a television channel, immediately went viral. A flurry of op-eds and hot takes have been published since. Supporters of the government, predictably, rejected the claims. Those who have questions agree on a more fundamental problem: a lack of transparency and statistical credibility in India's economic data.
Over the past decade, critics say, the government has systematically hollowed out the integrity of its own data infrastructure, weaponising economic data for political gain and creating a trust deficit. Methodologies have been changed, crucial surveys have faced long delays and there have been attempts to suppress inconvenient findings.
In November, the International Monetary Fund rated India's national accounts data a 'C' on a four-point scale, the second-lowest grade. In its report, the IMF said some of the methodologies are outdated, including relying on an old base year, unexplained discrepancies between GDP calculated from the production and expenditure side, as well as a lack of seasonal data.
India's statistical system once commanded respect, and its data on economic and social indicators was considered rigorous. There might have been disagreements on the quality of estimates but their independence was widely accepted. That trust appears to have eroded in recent years.
"There seems to be a systematic effort by the government to hide the truth," said R Nagaraj, an economist who taught at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research. He added that some of the other contested datasets include employment numbers, poverty numbers, health data and consumption data. "Over the last 10 years, the government has changed the methodology for many of these, raising questions. They have apparently also removed critical officials who headed some surveys. All of this adds to the scepticism."
In one of the most prominent examples, from 2019, a Business Standard journalist revealed that the government had not published an official report showing unemployment at a 45-year high of 6.1%. Two expert members of the National Statistical Commission resigned in protest. The government initially denied it, calling it a draft. The figures were only released months later.
Then there is the census, which for the first time since independence, was delayed in 2021. Economists say relying on outdated demographic data means, among other things, inequitable allocation of welfare entitlements. (The first phase of the latest census finally began in April 2026.)
Nagaraj has witnessed some of this first-hand. He served on a subcommittee in 2014 whose report forms a part of the GDP. "The [numbers] we had discussed in the committee and what came out in the final report were different. So, I had to raise a red flag," he said. The difference was notable: one figure in the published report had been inflated by 108%.
But government economists reject the ongoing criticism of the GDP numbers. Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the prime minister, described it as a "noisy and very ill-informed debate" arguing that political leanings, not data, are behind the criticism.
The IMF rating was expected, she said. "The IMF rating of 'C' is the same rating that China has for its statistics. Several large developing or just developed economies have data issues." Revisions to its calculations that the government was accused of having manipulated, she added, were precisely the sorts of changes the IMF had recommended.
The sticking point, as some including India's former chief statistician Pronab Sen have pointed out, is the trustworthiness of the underlying data used.
Complicating this debate is the reality for many Indians. This year, young people have taken to the streets in frustration. Protests, which first began over leaked examination papers, have crystallised into a broader reckoning over systemic failures in education, jobs and the promise of a better future.
Almost 40% of graduates under 25 are unemployed, a recent report by Azim Premji University concluded. An estimated 87 million Indians between 15 and 29 are neither working, studying, nor doing skill training, a government thinktank reported last month.
That is why we should care about data quality, economists say. Incorrect data means bad policy.