A war that had no clear objectives and no obvious endgame, but unleashed havoc across the globe, looks to be on the brink of coming to a close. As he prepared to mark his 80th birthday with a cage fight on the historic White House lawn, Donald Trump announced via social media that "the Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete." This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing The Guardian.
The US president has been claiming a deal is close since very early on in the conflict, but this time his words have been backed up by Iranian officials and Pakistan, which has been acting as mediator. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the agreement puts an "immediate end" to the war, including the conflict in Lebanon. World leaders, including Keir Starmer, have welcomed the news.
For many, especially those whose lives have been thrown into chaos, there will be a sense of relief – even if it is tempered by doubts. Key questions remain – over the nuclear deal, the vital strait of Hormuz, of Israel's role, and whether peace can hold.
On the morning of Saturday 28 February, the US and Israel launched a major military offensive against Iran, hitting the country with hundreds of air strikes. By 9.45am local time, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed at his compound in Tehran in a mission that took just one minute. Trump claimed the sudden offensive, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, would give Iranians a chance to "rise up" against their rulers while Benjamin Netanyahu told Iranians to "flood the streets and finish the job."
However, things did not go according to plan - if there was indeed a plan. Iran was able to conduct a sustained, and damaging, wave of retaliatory strikes across the region, hitting critical energy infrastructure. Crucially, it closed the strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices rocketing and sparking global shortage fears. Thousands of people have been killed, primarily in Iran and Lebanon, but also in Israel and in Gulf states.
Trump, meanwhile, has insisted the end of the conflict was near almost ever since it began (at least 38 times for those keeping track). He claimed his "short-term excursion" to "get rid of some evil" was – just over a week in – "very complete, pretty much." By late March, he declared "regime change" had been achieved.
A fragile ceasefire that came into effect in April broke down earlier this month when the US launched strikes across Iran, and Trump threatened further action. But the US leader suddenly changed course at the end of last week, insisting a deal was imminent.
Global leaders are already reacting positively to the news of an agreement, with G7 leaders expected to discuss it in depth as they meet in France today and Tuesday. But the knock-on effects of this conflict are still likely to reverberate beyond any peace deal.
Despite Trump's grand announcement, and the flow of hopeful messages from world leaders, details of the deal are – perhaps unsurprisingly – unclear. A memorandum of understanding is due to be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, but the precise terms have not been published. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said a more expansive agreement would be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period.
So far Pakistan and Iran have asserted that Lebanon, which has been a sticking point throughout talks, would be included in the scope of the agreement. Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said the deal called for "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." However another thorny issue – Iran's nuclear programme – appears to still be under discussion. While Trump insisted on Sunday that "Iran will never have a nuclear weapons," reports suggest that talks over its uranium enrichment plans would continue in this 60-day period. The lack of movement on the nuclear issue has led to skepticism over whether a deal will hold.
