The race for a US Senate seat in Texas may prove crucial in determining which party controls Congress next year. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing BBC News.

For Democrats, their losing streak in statewide elections now stretches back more than three decades. In the second most populous state in America, liberals have been in the wilderness for a generation. But polls suggest their candidate, 37-year-old James Talarico, may be on the verge of breaking through and turning a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988.

That would be a dream scenario for Democrats - and a potential nightmare for Republicans. "If the Democrats do pull it off, I think it's going to cause a lot of soul searching and a lot of psychological damage to the Republican Party in Texas and nationwide," said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican campaign strategist.

These dramatic stakes help explain how this Senate race has rocketed to become the most expensive in US history, with total spending reaching more than half a billion dollars.

For Talarico, it has been a remarkable rise for a candidate who in 2025 was a relatively unknown state-level Democrat. At the Fiesta Center in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday night, the line to see the softly spoken former teacher, who studied to be a Christian minister, stretched around the building and down the wide parking lot to a busy road.

In this dusty western plains town of about 250,000, which voted overwhelmingly for President Donald Trump two years ago, a visit from a major Democratic candidate on the eve of an election was unusual. "It's just so amazing to watch," said Aaron Gonzalez, the Democratic Party chair for Hockley County, which borders Lubbock. "This time is different."

When Talarico took the stage before an estimated 3,000 supporters – with another thousand listening on speakers outside - his pitch was a familiar one for many national Democrats this year, albeit with a Texas twist. He railed against a conservative political establishment that he said is insensitive to the economic hardship of average Americans. He condemned the corrosive influence of big money in politics. And he promised to advance a "comprehensive anti-corruption agenda" in the Senate.

"Texans are ready for change," he said. "We are done with the extremism and the corruption. We're done with the politics of division, and we are ready for something new." The slogan for his final two weeks of campaigning – "clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose" – is taken from Friday Night Lights, a popular early 2000s TV show about a plucky small-town Texas high school football team.

His music playlist leans heavily on twangy Texas country music. He celebrates Texas breakfast tacos, quotes legendary Texas singer-songwriter Lyle Lovett and frequently mentions that his ties to the state go back eight generations.

In the Lubbock audience, Andrew Robinson, a student from nearby Texas Tech University, liked what he heard. But the 26-year-old's optimism was tempered by an entire lifetime spent watching Democrats try, and fail, to get a toehold in the state. "A Talarico win would mean so much," he said. "I haven't been keen on wanting to stay in Texas. And if the government were to change, it could give me a reason."

For Republicans, a Democratic win in Texas would have a very different meaning. At roughly the same time Talarico was addressing his supporters in the Fiesta Center, Trump – alongside the Republican Party's Senate candidate Ken Paxton – was just a few miles away, in a venue twice the size. "If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas," the president told the crowd.

Trump's visit to reliably-Republican Lubbock suggests the party is concerned about turnout even in the most conservative portions of the state. It is a worry that has been echoed by other Texas Republicans. "Understand, we could lose Texas," Texas Senator Ted Cruz said in his podcast on Friday. "The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans."

Don Huffines, who is running for election as the state's chief financial officer, issued an even more dire warning. "Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America," he posted on X. "When the foundation breaks, it all falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA."

For weeks now, party leaders have been warning that a liberal breakthrough in the Lone Star State could have dire consequences. They fear a Talarico win would motivate more local Democrats to run for statewide and federal offices. Better quality candidates with more funding could lead to a snowball effect similar to the Democratic inroads seen in other southern states, such as Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. "I think that it's pretty clear that Republicans, especially candidates, consultants, operatives, and others who are active in the party, see that this is a real threat," said Steinhauser. "The days of waving this off and saying that Texas would never turn blue are over."