In the first quarter of 2026, Tajikistan's economy remained one of the fastest-growing in the region: GDP increased by 8.0% year-on-year. The main contributions came from services (+4.4 percentage points) and manufacturing (+2.5 percentage points). This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
Industrial production in January-March grew by 14.1% year-on-year to 16.1 billion somoni ($1.7 billion at the current exchange rate). However, the mining sector saw a decline (–9.8% year-on-year), likely due to a high base from the previous year. Coal production fell by 30.0%, and oil and gas production dropped by 63.8%. The key segment – metal ore mining, which accounts for 97.3% of mining output – also slightly decreased (–0.6%).
The manufacturing sector contributed the most to industrial growth (+29.6% year-on-year), especially metallurgy (+25.5%) and food processing (+17.1%). The Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan does not provide data by metallurgy segments, but it can be assumed that rising gold and aluminum prices boosted the sector.
In metallurgy, the state continues to focus on creating production chains around the economic flagship, the TALCO group of companies, stimulating technological modernization and higher value-added. A landmark event will be the expected launch in 2026 of a new metallurgical complex with a capacity of up to 20,000 tons of antimony (a semi-metal widely used in energy and military industries). Tajikistan ranks second in the world after China in antimony reserves (265,000 tons). In recent years, the country has steadily increased antimony exports from $32 million in 2020 to $260 million in 2025.
Among other manufacturing industries, strong growth was seen in rubber, plastic products, and other non-metallic minerals (+24.8% year-on-year), wood and paper products (1.5 times increase), and chemical products (1.5 times increase). Despite their relatively small share in manufacturing output (about 16.5% in Q1), their rapid growth supported overall production expansion.
These industries are expected to continue growing in Q2 due to the launch of projects in light industry and metallurgy, while the mining sector decline will likely be offset by modernization of production lines at one of the country's largest mining enterprises, Tajik-China Mining.
Services remain the largest segment of Tajikistan's economy (51.1% of GDP in Q1). Domestic trade turnover increased by 22.1% year-on-year, including retail trade by 27.1%. HoReCa sector services grew by 44.0% year-on-year. Consumer spending growth is largely due to the continuing effect of last year's salary increases for public sector employees (20-30%), indexation of pensions and benefits, and stable remittances from labor migrants. The volume of "other paid services" increased by 8.5%. Within this category, banking services surged by 26.7%, legal services by 15.1%, and telecommunications by 14.9%.
Total capital investments in Q1 2026 grew by 34.2% year-on-year in comparable prices, reaching 6 billion somoni. This investment boom directly impacted construction: the volume of contract work increased by 1.3 billion somoni (to 4.7 billion).
The main driver of investment growth was the state: budget investments increased 1.5 times to 3.2 billion somoni, accounting for more than half (54.1%) of total investments. The private sector increased investments by 25.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, foreign capital inflows fell by 16%.
Energy, including the Rogun HPP, remained a key priority of investment policy. In Q1, 2.4 billion somoni (+46.4% year-on-year) were allocated for energy facilities.
The growth in capital investments also spurred housing construction: housing commissioning jumped 1.7 times year-on-year (to 381,000 square meters). The absolute leader in development activity was the capital: Dushanbe accounted for 38.1% of all commissioned housing. Along with housing, social infrastructure actively developed.
Currently, 87 state investment projects worth 51.6 billion somoni are being implemented in the country. The state's main focus remains completing the Rogun HPP and modernizing energy infrastructure.
Tajikistan's public finances show stable dynamics: budget revenues in Q1 reached 16.7 billion somoni, exceeding the adjusted plan by 8.3%. Expenditures were financed at 13.9 billion somoni, with a net surplus of 2.8 billion.
Tax revenues accounted for more than two-thirds (67.7%) of all budget revenues, increasing by 30.9% year-on-year. The largest increases came from VAT (+902 million somoni) and income and profit taxes (+888 million combined). Excise revenues grew more modestly (+119 million). Non-tax revenues increased moderately (+10.7%, to 2.6 billion somoni).
Budget expenditures in Q1 increased by 14.5% year-on-year, mainly due to higher investments in the fuel and energy complex – 2.4 billion somoni (27.5% of budget expenditures; execution at 94.2%) were allocated for strategic projects. A significant portion of resources went to social sectors: education, healthcare, and social protection together received 40.4% of budget financing (5.6 billion somoni).
Inflation eased from 3.6% in January to 3.4% in March. The main contributors to price growth were food products (+4.1% year-on-year) and services (+7.3%), with non-food goods showing zero dynamics.