As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, political changes in Kyiv and a deteriorating relationship with Poland are emerging. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing The Guardian.

According to a Guardian correspondent after a trip to Kyiv, after more than four years of war, the political and diplomatic news agenda has become cyclical: suggestions of a peace deal, followed by the reality that the Kremlin has no interest in abandoning its maximalist goals.

Currently, Russia has stepped up air attacks on the Ukrainian capital. Frequent mass drone and missile attacks keep Kyiv residents awake, and some even reach the city center. One attack while the correspondent was there killed 27 people. Thousands head to the metro to sleep.

What are the chances that Putin's planned three-day war will end in its fifth year? All of Donald Trump's attempts to end it have failed, and these efforts have been muted as Washington turned its attention to the Middle East. However, there is cautious optimism in some quarters that late autumn this year might provide a window for a deal. Ukraine wants to avoid another winter at war, and Vladimir Putin is under pressure from Kyiv's campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure. Others are more skeptical, pointing to Putin's recent aggressive rhetoric and suggesting Moscow will double down rather than seek agreement.

Domestically, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is about to reshuffle the government again, with rumors he could seek a renewed mandate in a presidential election. However, even if there is a ceasefire, questions arise: how would voting be organized for frontline communities, Ukrainians under Russian occupation, and millions of refugees abroad? Who would run against Zelenskyy, and is a real political contest possible?

In recent weeks, a new scandal has erupted: the increasingly acrimonious falling out between Ukraine and Poland. In 2022, Warsaw was one of Kyiv's most reliable allies, but a dispute over history has brought the relationship to crisis point. Ukraine's decision to name a military unit after the "Heroes of the UPA" – a nationalist group responsible for massacres of Poles and Jews during World War II – has angered Poland.

This story complicates memory wars and plays into Kremlin propaganda. The correspondent notes deep animosity among ordinary people in both countries. Ukrainians rage that Poland is playing into Russian hands by fussing over history during war; Poles say that after four years of supporting Ukraine, the least they could expect is for their ally not to honor historical figures who massacred Poles.

Bartosz Cichocki, Poland's former ambassador to Ukraine, said Poland may get tougher on Ukraine's path to joining the European Union. "No more romance, no more naivety," he said. When historical issues are in the hands of politicians, it's bad news. With elections due in Poland and potentially Ukraine, expect things to get worse between Warsaw and Kyiv before they get better.