Kursiv Research analyzed bond placements by Kazakhstani issuers on local exchanges – KASE and AIX – in retrospect to 2020. This material focuses on issuers from the quasi-public sector – companies controlled by the state. In Kazakhstan, they are mainly concentrated in two holdings – Sovereign Wealth Fund Samruk-Kazyna and National Holding Baiterek. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.

Already based on the results of incomplete August 2026, it can be confidently said that the volume of bond placements by quasi-public sector issuers on local stock exchanges this year will be record-breaking, exceeding the equivalent of 8 trillion tenge. And it's not just about inflationary processes.

In the last three years, quasi-public sector companies have become more active in using KASE and AIX to attract investment. Analysis of data collected by Kursiv Research from market information presented on the portals of the Almaty and Astana exchanges shows that from 2020 to 2025, the total volume of placements by quasi-public issuers grew 2.8 times – to 7.4 trillion tenge (foreign currency placements were converted at the current exchange rate for the month of placement for analysis convenience, duplicate placements were excluded from the total).

In the incomplete eight months of this year, the quasi-public sector managed to exceed this value, placing securities totaling 7.6 trillion tenge.

A significant increase in the volume of placements occurred during 2024: in one year, the volume of placements grew fivefold due to explosive growth in two key groups of issuers – Samruk-Kazyna and its portfolio companies, and the Baiterek national holding, including its development institutions. According to Kursiv Research calculations, the volume of bond offerings by the Fund and its subsidiaries grew from 0.6 to 3.3 trillion tenge, and Baiterek – from 0.4 to 3.4 trillion.

In 2025, the fund and national companies slowed down, while Baiterek only increased, bringing the total placement volume to 5.3 trillion. This year, the Fund is still leading: 4.0 versus 3.4 trillion for the incomplete eight months.

The main difference this year is the dominance of foreign currencies in placements. Recall: we consider only placements on Kazakhstani exchanges, and their local issuers typically used them primarily for tenge funding. For the first time, quasi-public sector companies placed a significant volume of foreign currency bonds in 2021, when 33% of the issue volume in tenge equivalent was in dollars and rubles. In 2024, foreign currency debt accounted for 28% of the placement volume of quasi-public companies (only dollars), a year later – 46% (dollars and yuan). This year, the share of foreign currency placements reached 60%: 43% in USD, 17% in CNY.

The "currency shift" among quasi-public companies is driven by objective factors. The yield on tenge bonds has grown in recent years amid the tight monetary policy of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (high base rate). The weighted average coupon rate on placed bonds in tenge in 2020–2025 increased from 8.86% to 14.54%. The similar rate on dollar placements increased from 3.63% to 5.30%.

The twofold expansion of the spread between tenge and dollar yields, even amid a periodically weakening national currency, pushes the borrower to cheaper alternative currencies.

An additional argument for both borrowers and lenders was the strengthening of the tenge against the main borrower currencies at the end of 2023. During 2026, the Kazakh national currency also strengthened. The stability of the tenge reduces the amount of currency risk for borrowers in dollars and yuan.

All this together led to the fact that the weighted average maturity of tenge bonds began to decline: for the group of quasi-public companies, the weighted average maturity of placements in 2020 was 11 years, in 2025 – 6 years, in incomplete 2026 – 5 years. However, for dollar placements, the maturity also decreased this year compared to the previous one, from 9 to 5 years. The weighted average yuan placements have been 4-year for the second year in a row.

As of August 24, 2026, the absolute champion of the quasi-public sector in placing bonds on KASE and AIX was Samruk-Kazyna, which alone (standalone) attracted 1.5 trillion in tenge equivalent in the incomplete eight months of 2026. For comparison: for the whole of 2025 – 0.2 trillion. But the tenge component in the securities placed by the fund in 2026 is modest – only 11%. About 27% of the attracted volume is yuan, 62% is dollars.

In CNY, the fund placed 3- and 5-year securities at 2.09% and 2.18% – 3 billion yuan each. In April, part of the 10-billion bond program for 2026–2029 hit the market. In July – an issue of securities maturing in 2031. USD placements are represented by 12-month bonds at 3.81% and 6-month bonds at 3.90% from a $2 billion bond program at SOFR + 0.2 p.p.

The increased activity in the capital market is apparently due to the fund's shift in focus from operational to investment function. The Fund's annual report for 2025 states that "by 2030, the fund plans to transform into an investment holding" and already now, to strengthen the investment function, "measures are being implemented to develop co-investment mechanisms with international partners, expand financing attraction tools, and improve the efficiency of capital allocation within the group."

In the Samruk pipeline current at the time of the report's release, there are 120 investment projects worth 52 trillion, of which "62 large investment projects in the oil and gas, petrochemical, energy, transport and logistics, and other key sectors of the economy totaling 31.5 trillion" are approved as a list by the Fund's board of directors and are subject to regular monitoring.

QazaqGaz – number three on the list for the incomplete 2026 – placed exclusively in dollars in May and July: on 06.05.2026, the national company placed 12-month bonds for $1 billion, and on 09.07.2026 – another $0.5 billion, thus mastering the entire short-term bond program. The remaining $0.7 billion – 10-year bonds at 5.63%.

KTZ is also among the leaders in the volume of capital raised through domestic exchanges.