Birth rates in Kazakhstan continue to decline. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, families in the country are becoming smaller, women are giving birth later, and the total number of newborns has decreased significantly in recent years. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Ranking.

The average number of children per household in 2026 fell to 1 child, down from 1.1 in previous years. At the same time, the average family size decreased from 3.4 people in 2021 to 3.2 in 2026. These data indicate a gradual transition to a small-family model.

The highest number of children is still recorded in the southern regions. In the Turkistan region, the average is 2.1 children per household, in Kyzylorda region – 1.7, in Zhambyl region – 1.4. In Shymkent, this figure reached 1.2. In major cities, the situation is reversed: in Almaty – 0.6 children, in Astana – 0.8. The lowest rate was recorded in the East Kazakhstan region – 0.5.

The downward trend in birth rates has persisted for the fourth consecutive year. In 2021, the total fertility rate was 3.3 children per woman, but by the end of 2025 it had fallen to 2.6.

This has already affected the total number of newborns. In 2021, 445,900 children were born in the country, the peak after the baby boom. However, by 2025, this figure had dropped to 335,000. That is almost 25% less than four years ago.

Another notable trend is that Kazakh women are increasingly postponing childbirth to a later age. In 2019, women aged 25-29 accounted for 32.3% of all births, but by 2025 their share had fallen to 27%. In the 20-24 age group, the figure also decreased from 24.1% to 21.8%.

At the same time, the share of older mothers increased. Among women aged 30-34, the figure rose to 26.1%, and in the 35-39 age group to 17.1%.

Analysts cite the economy as one of the key reasons. According to statistics, the more children in a family, the higher the risk of falling below the poverty line. In households with five or more members, the share of the poor reached 9.7%. In absolute numbers, this is 873,500 people, or more than 95% of all low-income people in the country.

The financial burden is increasingly influencing Kazakhstani's decisions on the number of children, and the country's demographic model is gradually changing.

In April, analysts at energyprom.kz questioned whether large families in Kazakhstan are a path to poverty. Almost a million people in the country live below the poverty line, and most often these are residents of large families. Such data are provided by analysts based on the results of the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to statistics, 988,200 people from 172,700 families had incomes below the subsistence minimum. This is 4.8% of the country's population. Over the year, the number of poor people increased by 2%. The gap between urban and rural areas remains particularly noticeable. In cities, the poverty rate remained at 3.6%, while in rural areas it rose from 6.8% to 7%. Thus, rural residents face poverty almost twice as often as urban residents.

The worst situation is in the Turkistan region, where 8.4% of the population lives below the poverty line. It is followed by the Mangystau region with 7.9%, the Abai region – 7.4%, and the Zhetysu region – 7%.

The most favorable situation was recorded in Astana, where the figure was 2.6%. In the Karaganda and Atyrau regions, it reached 3.1%.

The rise in extreme poverty is particularly alarming. The share of people whose incomes are insufficient even for a minimum food basket tripled over the year – from 0.1% to 0.3%. The increase was especially sharp in cities.

The most vulnerable category remains large families. Among households with five or more members, the poverty rate was 9.1%. For comparison: in families of four, this figure is 2.6%, and in families of three – only 0.9%.