The era of Kazakh banks posting record profits is over. Now they are essentially competing to see who has lost the least under new conditions. Kursiv Research examined how the income and expense structures of individual banks have changed to determine which business model is most adaptable today. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
The combined profit of Kazakhstan's eight largest universal banks in Q1 2026 (here and below – Kursiv Research calculations) fell 18.9% year-on-year, or by 117 billion tenge (from 620 billion to 503 billion). The financial result deteriorated amid higher minimum reserve requirements (MRT) and fiscal changes, such as an increase in the corporate income tax (CIT) rate from 20% to 25% on operations not related to business lending, and the imposition of VAT on bank commissions for certain services. For example, Halyk Bank's MRT volume surged from 306 billion tenge at the start of 2025 to 862 billion at the start of 2026, or 181%, while liabilities to clients grew only 10.4%.
Among the eight banks under review (with Kaspi.kz holding company added as a ninth for comparison), Halyk saw the largest absolute profit decline (–40.2 billion tenge year-on-year), but by the rate of decline (–14.6%) it was one of the least affected.
Halyk's net interest income fell by 13.9 billion tenge (–4.6%), partly due to a 21.4 billion tenge increase in expected credit loss (ECL) expenses. Net fee and commission income decreased by 8.8 billion tenge (–26.1%). Among other income, the insurance business result worsened (–7.3 billion tenge, or –47.1%). Meanwhile, the bank's operating and other expenses (including provisions for non-credit financial assets) rose by 13.9 billion tenge (+21.6%). As a result, net profit fell by 40.2 billion tenge.
In its quarterly press release, the bank cited two reasons for the profit decline: higher MRT and tighter retail lending regulation. The reduction in fee income was explained by lower transaction income from installment plans "amid stricter underwriting procedures due to regulatory changes" and the gradual pass-through of VAT introduced on January 1 to clients. In September, to compensate for VAT losses, Halyk will raise fees for interbank money transfers for individuals from 200 to 250 tenge per transaction.
Kaspi Bank lost 13.8% (–17.7 billion tenge) compared to its own result last year – the best dynamics among the top 8. The bank's net interest income showed strong growth (+29.9%). However, almost all of this gain was eaten up by a shortfall in fees (–32.2%).
By July 19, Kaspi, along with other banks, must connect to the unified interbank QR. At the March Digital Qazaqstan meeting, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, without naming names, accused "the largest banks" of delaying connection to the National Bank's digital infrastructure – the Interbank Mobile Payment System (IMPS). As of June 1, seven players had connected to the unified QR: Halyk, BCC, Alatau City, Freedom, Bank RBK, Home Credit, and Altyn. Kaspi's entry into this project may negatively affect its fee income dynamics. It is still unclear whether Kaspi will provide access to the second IMPS service – interbank transfers by phone number. Currently, this service is available to clients of 12 banks, and among significant players, Kaspi is the only one not connected.
However, Kaspi Bank's financial result pales in comparison to the profit consolidated by its parent holding company. Kaspi.kz earned 252 billion tenge in Q1, surpassing Halyk (235 billion tenge) and barely noticing regulatory tightening (–0.8% relative to Q1 2025 profit). In addition to the eponymous subsidiary bank, the holding receives profit from Kaspi Pay LLP, Kaspi Magazin LLP, Magnum E-commerce Kazakhstan LLP, Kaspi Travel LLP, Kolesa JSC, and Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada.
Kaspi.kz's business model differs from the classic banking model, so its profit structure looks different. The main item is net fee and commission income, which reached 378 billion tenge in Q1 (+9.2% year-on-year). Net interest income amounted to 133 billion tenge (+27.5%). Retail income grew to 219 billion tenge (+62.7%), but the mirror expense item – cost of goods and services – significantly outweighed revenue: costs amounted to 313 billion tenge (+55.6%). Overall, the holding's non-interest expenses increased to 431 billion tenge (+52.2%); in addition, CIT rose notably (+31.8%). As a result, net profit fell 0.8%.
In Kaspi.kz's Q1 results press release, it was noted that profit dynamics were affected by higher deposit expenses after interest rate increases in 2025, as well as the consolidation of Hepsiburada for a full quarter (versus two months in Q1 2025, as the Turkish platform was purchased on January 29). According to the holding, Hepsiburada will not generate profit in the near term. "The increase in cost of goods sold is mainly due to Hepsiburada being consolidated for the full quarter in 2026. We have decided to support its operations at an EBITDA breakeven level, as the priority is investment in its future development," Kaspi.kz reported.
BCC's quarterly profit fell by 20.5 billion tenge (–25.1% year-on-year). The bank significantly increased net interest income (+18.0%) but declined in fees (–30.8%) and other revenue (–37.5%). While the fee shortfall was not critical in monetary terms (–3.1 billion tenge), the "other income" item suffered significantly (–17.4 billion).
Within this item, BCC missed profit from its portfolio of trading securities and currency swaps (–5.7 billion tenge) and from currency operations (–2.9 billion) amid the strengthening tenge. But the main role in the decline of other income was played by a one-off effect from a year earlier: in Q1 2025, the bank recognized a profit of 10.9 billion tenge from the reversal of non-credit provisions, while in Q1 2026, it spent 0.2 billion tenge on provisioning.
BCC's operating expenses increased.