Economist Almas Chukin noted that the Kazakh government often errs in its tenge exchange rate forecasts when planning the budget, and in 2026 the deviation turned out to be a record. According to the expert, the tenge rate, which is 12% stronger than the one laid into the budget, gives the economy and the population more advantages than disadvantages. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.

On forecast accuracy

Almas Chukin noted that when planning the budget for the coming years, the government forecasts the tenge exchange rate. However, such a forecast should not be perceived as the government's promise to maintain a certain rate. It is a technical indicator needed for planning revenues and expenditures.

The government's forecast itself often turns out to be inaccurate. According to data cited by the economist, over the past 11 years, only twice did the tenge rate laid into the annual budget deviate from the actual rate by less than 2% in either direction. Often the deviation approached 10%, and this year it became a record. The 2026 budget set the average dollar rate at 540 tenge. However, based on the results of nine months, the average rate was about 477 tenge – 12% below the calculated value.

Why predicting the dollar rate is difficult

The economist noted that predicting the dollar rate with a deviation of less than 10% is practically impossible, since it is impossible to account for all possible external factors. Forecast accuracy can reach 90%. At the same time, the government does not actually engage in "predicting" the rate, and it has no special method for this.

"A couple of years ago I even heard an explanation of the established approach to this issue. One of the leaders who has a voice in this process explained to me that they simply take the fact that has already developed and add a little to it to arrive at the figure for the next year. …And in principle, they are doing the right thing, and there can be no other approach. No one knows what the rate will be next year," Almas Chukin noted.

Impact on the economy

The economist also assessed the impact on the economy and the population of the tenge strengthening "excessively" compared to the rate laid into the budget. According to him, formally there was a failure to meet certain planned indicators that were based on a conditional figure. When the tenge strengthens, the cost of imports and export earnings in the national currency decreases, and along with it tax revenues shrink. According to Chukin's estimate, the effect of this factor reaches 700 billion tenge.

"Nothing terrible happened because of this deviation in the calculated indicator. The government could have explained this point better – not make excuses, but reveal the essence," the economist noted.

According to the expert, in reality, thanks to the strong tenge, the country's financial position has improved significantly. The growing budget deficit was reduced, including through tax reform. Despite the fact that the tax revenue plan was fulfilled by 98%, collections were 16% higher than a year earlier.

Advantages of a strong tenge

The strengthening of the national currency makes imported goods cheaper and helps contain inflation. According to Chukin, the purchasing power of citizens is growing, and the state will ultimately be able to collect additional VAT due to increased consumption.

"A strong tenge means cheaper imported goods. Less VAT at the border means, along the chain, a lower price from the supplier and in the store. Let less VAT be collected at the store checkout, but this tenge remained in the buyer's wallet," the expert noted.

The economist also notes that slower inflation in the future will reduce spending on indexing pensions and social benefits.

The main drawback

The expert considers the impact on spending from the National Fund to be the main drawback of a strong tenge.

"If we replenish the budget from the National Fund, then an expensive tenge will cost the National Fund more in dollars. To pump 2-3 trillion tenge into the transfer, we will have to take out more dollars from the NF, which, as is known, is formed in foreign currency," the economist explained.

At the same time, Chukin notes that Kazakhstan's economy has successfully passed a very difficult stage of economic reforms, is developing quickly and steadily, and this is important to preserve. In this perspective, a strong rate is not a problem for the economy, but an achievement.