Despite the base rate cut to 17%, the real cost of money in the economy has risen due to slowing inflation. As a result, banks are not rushing to lower, and in some cases even raise, loan rates. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
Analysts at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) analyzed interest rates in the country's financial market in the first half of the year. They noted that despite the base rate cut to 17% by the end of June, the slowdown in inflation to 10.3% effectively led to an increase in real rates in the economy to 6.7%. This maintained fairly tight monetary conditions and restrained demand. For example, retail trade growth over five months slowed to 3.6% compared to 6.5% a year earlier.
This situation affects lending to businesses and individuals differently. Small and medium-sized businesses found it harder to obtain funds, as rates rose by 1.56 percentage points and 1.14 percentage points, respectively. At the same time, rates for large businesses remained virtually unchanged due to lower risk for banks.
In the consumer segment, i.e., lending to Kazakhstani citizens, the cost of loans is influenced not only by the National Bank's rate but also by government programs and banks' marketing offers. For instance, in the mortgage market, where preferential programs of Otbasy Bank dominate, rates decreased by 0.23 percentage points. Meanwhile, the cost of consumer loans is rising due to the low base of the previous year, when banks offered many promotional products, as well as due to tight monetary conditions.
The cost of auto loans increased due to the reduction of marketing programs by car dealerships.
"Thus, in the first half of 2026, prerequisites were formed for the start of a cycle of gradual reduction of interest rates. However, its pace in the second half may be more restrained due to growing pro-inflationary risks, including further implementation of tariff reform, quasi-budgetary stimulus, high inflation expectations, as well as individual shocks from key trading partners," the AFK noted.
Earlier, an expert noted that after the base rate cut, the government bond market began to restructure. Yields on long-term securities are declining, which could be the first signal of future cheaper money in the economy.