Financial tension is intensifying again in Kazakhstan. After nearly two years of relative stabilization, the financial stress index calculated by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (AKRA) showed an increase in April 2026. Analysts say the main reason is not a deterioration in current fundamental indicators, but an increase in the probability of so-called trigger events – factors capable of sharply destabilizing the financial system. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
According to AKRA, in the second half of 2025 and January 2026, the index remained within 0.2-0.31 points, indicating the formation of a stable plateau. However, by spring the situation changed: the financial stress assessment rose significantly amid increased refinancing risks and currency instability.
One of the alarming signals was the deterioration of the foreign trade balance. While in 2024 Kazakhstan's current account deficit was $6.8 billion, by the end of 2025 it had increased to $12.45 billion. Moreover, in the first quarter of 2026, the deficit reached $1.79 billion compared to $1.04 billion in the same period last year. AKRA believes this dynamic could put additional pressure on the tenge exchange rate in the near term.
Recall that a negative current account balance means the country spends more on external operations than it earns.
At the same time, the currency imbalance is not yet considered critical. Analysts note that positive indicators remain in the financial, government, and partially corporate sectors, which mitigate risks. In particular, the government sector remains in surplus thanks to foreign currency debt assets that reached record levels at the end of 2025 and remain high in 2026.
AKRA separately draws attention to the banking sector. Here, an increase in short-term liabilities and a rise in interest expenses are recorded. This indicates a growing liquidity imbalance, which is becoming one of the main sources of potential stress. In other words, banks are finding it more expensive to service their obligations, and dependence on short-term money is increasing.
In the corporate sector, the situation is mixed. On the one hand, foreign currency export revenues persist, partially offsetting the debt burden. On the other hand, this cushion is gradually shrinking due to lower dollar export revenues and the tenge's strengthening against the dollar in recent months.
Changes are also observed among the population. According to the study, as of April, the volume of transferable deposits in tenge reached approximately 2.2 trillion tenge. At the same time, interest expenses increased: the rate on foreign currency loans for individuals was 4%, and on tenge loans with a term of up to five years – 24.76%. This increases the burden on households.
AKRA emphasizes that this is not yet a full-fledged crisis. The vulnerability of economic sectors remains relatively moderate. However, the increased likelihood of trigger events – from oil market instability to tight monetary policy and global trade protectionism – makes the situation significantly more sensitive.
According to the agency, these factors could be decisive for Kazakhstan's financial stability over the next 12–18 months.
Earlier, it became known that the tenge became one of the fastest-growing currencies in the world.