In the three decades since Pauline Hanson entered federal politics, Australia has experienced numerous bouts of voter frustration with the mainstream parties. But it is only lately that the negative sentiment has propelled One Nation to unprecedented polling numbers and delivered Hanson higher net approval ratings than the prime minister and opposition leader. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing The Guardian.
Households are experiencing economic pressures that resemble the unrest of the 1970s, a period marked by elevated inflation and a stagnant economy. This 'stagflation impulse', as some economists describe it, manifests through a cost-of-living squeeze accompanied by fear for financial future, often including job insecurity.
A winter of discontent has been intensified by Australia's notoriously high housing costs and the frustration felt by younger generations at being priced out of home ownership. This despair is evident in consumer sentiment surveys showing Australians experiencing 'deep pessimism', according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute, with interest rate hikes also weighing on prospective buyers and mortgage holders.
While these factors have created fertile ground for populist parties, it is not the first time Australians have felt under financial strain. The difference this time, according to Jordan McSwiney, a researcher who has examined far-right movements, is that One Nation has been able to tie housing affordability concerns and other economic ailments to immigration.
'Economic policy and housing are not really territories that One Nation is usually comfortable on,' says McSwiney, a research fellow at the University of Canberra's centre for deliberative democracy. 'This kind of link between immigration and housing allows them to address issues that are very front of mind to people, like the economy, but address it from their preferred terrain. One Nation is doing a bit of a bait and switch, in that they use the context of housing and the economy to talk about what they really want to talk about, which is immigration.'
The party also links cost-of-living pressures to its campaign against net zero emissions and renewables, providing another well-established talking point for Hanson.
The causes of Australia's housing problem are multilayered, with decades of chronic undersupply and investor-centric tax settings helping supercharge prices. According to government data, Australian homes did not suddenly become unaffordable; there has been 25 years of price growth that has far outpaced wages.
While periods of high migration, which has now subsided, can place immediate pressure on rents and housing supply, they also provide the workers required to build homes, broaden the tax base and address critical skill shortages. AMP's chief economist, Shane Oliver, says policymakers need to get the balance right on immigration and avoid drastic cuts that result in labour shortages and the economy struggling with the costs of an ageing population.
One Nation's intention to firmly blame housing costs and other economic ailments on immigration is clear, with Hanson arguing at her National Press Club address last month that 'immigration policy has our country in the state of crisis'.
The Coalition has already explicitly linked migration rates to housing supply, giving One Nation's own policy mainstream legitimacy. Hanson's party is just better at prosecuting its case, and the Coalition is fractured. One Nation has taken its message straight to voters via 'engagement farm' operations that flood social media, promising an easy solution to housing affordability at no cost to voters.
There's an interesting question as to why the initial wave of inflation and cost-of-living pressures, starting in late 2021, did not spark the type of support for One Nation it is enjoying now. It was only during the latest rise in living costs, starting late last year, that Hanson's support surged. In the second inflationary wave, which has been made worse by the Iran war, households have stocked up on cheap canned goods and reduced their spending on takeaway coffees and restaurant meals.
Australians appear to be feeling worse now because they are facing new price hikes and mortgage rises on top of already depleted savings, with financial and emotional resilience wavering. A new OECD report has found that 'real hourly wages in Australia' are falling, meaning that living costs are rising faster than a typical paycheck. 'This sustained erosion of purchasing power points to persistent pressures on household incomes, even as the labour market has remained broadly solid,' the OECD report says.