First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin said that if high oil prices persist, Kazakhstan may receive additional budget revenues. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.

Amrin was answering a question about the impact of commodity prices on state revenues. In the budget calculations for 2027, Kazakhstan assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel. Therefore, a higher actual commodity price could potentially increase revenues.

“If prices persist, then this is an additional receipt, because we assume $70. If the price is higher, then this is additional budget revenues,” Amrin said.

According to the first vice minister, when forming budget parameters, the authorities are guided not by the current oil price but by forecasts from international financial organizations.

To do this, estimates from about 18 organizations are analyzed, after which a consensus forecast is formed and used in preparing the budget.

“We rely specifically on forecasts from international financial organizations. Despite current volatility, international financial organizations have established a consensus forecast, so we initially assumed $70,” Amrin said.

He cited several forecasts as examples.

“For example, JPMorgan plans $65 for the next period, the U.S. Department of Energy plans less than $70, and the World Bank – $73.4. We analyze forecasts from about 18 organizations and, based on them, make a consensus forecast that forms the basis of the budget,” the first vice minister said.

Despite current high quotations, the government does not consider them a sufficient basis for changing the baseline scenario.

Amrin drew attention to significant fluctuations in commodity prices during 2026.

“This year, oil price volatility ranged from $54-63 to $123 per barrel – you can see what a gap that is. Today the price is about $105, but tomorrow it could fall. Therefore, the final assessment of revenues will be given based on the results of the year,” he noted.

Kurultai deputy and member of the committee on finance and budget Tatyana Savelyeva also commented on the scenario in which oil could rise to $120 per barrel.

“Deputies and journalists are also concerned about this issue and possible scenarios for oil prices rising to $120. But we must understand that this is a matter of geopolitics,” Savelyeva said.

According to her, when assessing further dynamics, it is necessary to take into account the demand situation from China – one of the largest oil consumers.

The strengthening of the tenge led to significant budget losses for Kazakhstan: read here.