The Ebola outbreak that is spreading at unprecedented speed in Congo has not peaked yet and could be three times the current known size, according to data from authorities and Africa's top public health agency. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Associated Press.
It is history's fastest Ebola outbreak, and the World Health Organization says it is on track to surpass the deadliest on record, which was between 2014 and 2016, with over 11,000 deaths across West Africa.
This latest outbreak has recorded 2,516 deaths out of the 5,290 confirmed cases as it rages in Congo's vast eastern region, exacerbated by an intensely mobile population, including those displaced by armed conflicts, and distrust of medical authorities.
Less than 10% of cases are currently coming from known contacts, far below the 90-95% rate when the outbreak can be said to be under control, according to Yap Boum, head of emergency preparedness and response at the Africa CDC. Boum told reporters Thursday that under current estimates only 30% to 40% of cases have been detected.
Comparative data
Compared to the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak that ended with over 28,000 cases, including more than 11,000 deaths, this outbreak has recorded ten times more cases and seven times more deaths by the 13th week from when it was declared, data from the Africa CDC shows.
Congo's deadliest Ebola outbreak before now had been that of 2018-2020 with 3,400 cases and more than 2,200 deaths. This is moving 18 times faster in terms of the confirmed cases and 13 times faster regarding the deaths.
Origin of the outbreak
One key source of concern is that experts believe the outbreak began spreading from the mining town of Mongbwalu as early as February, months before authorities declared the outbreak on May 15.
Contact tracing challenges
Africa CDC data from the past three weeks shows the contact tracing rate of those exposed to patients is 82% out of 19,630 contacts in total. But that doesn't give the full picture. The agency said with an average of 60 contacts per confirmed case, it was expecting 99,780 contacts to be recorded for the 1,663 cases it said it confirmed in that three-week period. However, many of those contacts are not known, and therefore cannot be traced.
This complicates efforts to assess the full scale of the outbreak and bring it under control. Health experts emphasize the need to strengthen contact tracing and isolation measures to halt the spread of the virus.