After 10 days of exchanging strikes with the US over control of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, Iran's leaders may appear to have three choices. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing BBC News.
The first is to accept much of what Washington wants: guarantee free and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, give up or dilute Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and accept intrusive inspections by the global nuclear watchdog. In return, Tehran would seek an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief, and protection from further attacks. This is probably the least costly option, but also the costliest politically.
The second option is escalation. Iran could intensify its attacks on American bases in the region, shipping, and vital infrastructure in Gulf Arab states. This carries the greatest military risk.
The third option is to preserve the current instability: enough pressure on shipping and energy markets to retain leverage, but not enough to trigger all-out war with the US. This seems to fit the Islamic Republic's established thinking.
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has acknowledged the contradiction, arguing that the value of Hormuz lies in increasing the volume of shipping through it rather than reducing it. A permanently unsafe waterway encourages the world to find ways around Iran.
Under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike at the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in February, disputes were ultimately settled by the supreme leader. After months of war and under the new leadership of Khamenei's son Mojtaba, that balance of power is less clear. President Masoud Pezeshkian may favour a settlement, while hardliners may fear that major concessions would undermine the ideological foundations.
Iran and the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in June to halt military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But three weeks after it was signed, US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire "over" after Iranian attacks on ships in Hormuz. One woman in Iran told BBC Persian that she was "very, very saddened" when the fighting resumed. Another woman said the foreign-trade company where she worked had closed, leaving her unemployed for four months: "No-one is hiring because nobody knows what will happen."