The volume of mortgage loans issued by Kazakh banks in the first nine months of 2026 amounted to almost 1.9 trillion tenge. In nominal terms, the indicator increased by 9.6% compared to the same period last year, while in real terms – adjusted for inflation – mortgage lending fell by 0.9%. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
Astana and Almaty: opposite dynamics
Together, the two capitals account for more than half of the country's mortgage market. While in Astana housing lending even showed a slight increase (+2.7% in real terms) over the nine months of 2026, in Almaty mortgages fell noticeably (-6.7%). In the next three largest regions by mortgage lending volume (though far behind the megacities), different dynamics are observed: mortgage issuance grew in Shymkent (+23.0%) but decreased in Karaganda (-7.8%) and Aktobe (-2.2%) regions.
Impact on the housing market
The slowdown in mortgage lending predictably hit the country's housing market. According to the Ministry of Justice of Kazakhstan, the number of transactions in the first nine months of 2026 decreased by 5.6% to 296,700 units (-17,600). The main decline came from the two capitals: in Astana, the number of transactions fell by 11,300 (-17.8%, to 52,800), while in Almaty it dropped by 5,500 (-8.6%, to 57,800).
Pension savings and the minimum sufficiency threshold factor
Mortgage lending slowed after the increase in minimum sufficiency thresholds (MST), which determine the amount of early withdrawal of pension savings for housing improvement. This is shown by Kursiv Research calculations based on a scenario in which the mortgage market, after the surge in demand in December 2025, would return to normal dynamics, and the volume of withdrawals from the pension fund would stabilize at 45 billion tenge.
This is exactly what happened in the first months of the current year. In the first quarter of 2026, the surge in demand had already subsided. It arose, on the one hand, from some buyers' confidence that the introduction of VAT for developers would inevitably increase housing prices by at least 16%, and on the other hand, developers fueled this confidence with their statements (Nina Lukyanenko, advisor to the president of the Kazakhstan Association of Realtors, called that surge "demand stimulation by developers"). Additionally, demand was fueled by the ENPF's announcement in early December 2025 of a 10% increase in the MST, which the fund explained by high inflation.
As a result, in just one month, December 2025, depositors withdrew 229.2 billion tenge from the ENPF, or a quarter of the annual withdrawal volume. For banks that issued 251.5 billion tenge in mortgages that month, December became the second most productive month of 2025. For comparison: the average volume of withdrawals from the ENPF in the first quarter of 2026 was 44.9 billion tenge, while the average volume of new mortgage loans was 145.9 billion tenge.
Calculations: what would have happened without the MST increase
Kursiv Research calculations, made assuming that in subsequent months mortgage and pension withdrawal volumes would remain at the first-quarter level (provided the government does not raise the MST), show that mortgage loans for the nine months of 2026 would have reached almost 2.0 trillion tenge. This means nominal growth of 14.8% (instead of the actual 9.6%), and in real terms the indicator would have grown by almost 4.0% (instead of the actual decline of 0.9%).
How the MST was raised
But Kazakhstanis were aware of the impending significant increase in the MST. Back in February 2026, the head of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Timur Suleimenov, spoke in favor of raising the MST. And although in April Vice-Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of Kazakhstan Viktoria Shegai stated that there were no such plans, in mid-May another vice-minister of the same department, Yerbol Tuyakbayev, allowed for the possibility of revising the thresholds by the end of the year.
As a result, in the third decade of May the government approved a new methodology, and from June 5, 2026, the MST increased by 79% or more depending on the depositor's age. For a 30-year-old ENPF depositor, the sufficiency threshold rose from 5.1 million to 9.8 million tenge (+92.2%), and for a 40-year-old – doubled, from 6.7 million to 13.4 million tenge. Recall that pension savings above this limit can be directed to housing improvement.
Volume of pension withdrawals
The volume of pension savings withdrawals for housing improvement grew noticeably already in April (to 70.4 billion tenge, or 38.8% year-on-year), and in May (to 102 billion tenge, or +162.2%) and June (100.4 billion tenge; +129.7%) exceeded the 100 billion tenge mark. In the following three months, this indicator decreased to 27 billion tenge.
Funds withdrawn from the ENPF and credited to Otbasy deposits do not immediately enter the housing market. If previously there was a rule requiring pension money on deposit to be used within six years (initially the term was three years), then in autumn 2026 this restriction was completely abolished. With this in mind, pension funds will continue to influence the mortgage market, but their effect will gradually fade. In addition, factors have emerged in the economy that could further reduce housing demand. Prices for new housing in Kazakhstan have been growing at double-digit rates for 14 consecutive months (from August 2025 to September 2026). The situation was similar in the secondary market: there, the cost per square meter grew at double-digit rates for ten consecutive months (from September 2025 to June 2026). All this is happening against the backdrop of weak growth in real incomes of the population (+0.7% in the second quarter of 2026).
Regulatory restrictions
Another constraining factor could be restrictions from the regulator. Starting next year, the National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to set the maximum debt-to-income ratio (DTI) for borrowers at eight annual incomes. This indicator, which represents the ratio of the borrower's total debt on all outstanding loans and microcredits (including the planned loan) to annual income, has been calculated since August 2024 but so far operates only in test mode.
"Given the signs of cooling in the retail lending segment, the National Bank will continue monitoring the DTI indicator by individual types of loans, including car loans, mortgage housing loans, and unsecured consumer loans, without establishing differentiated maximum values for them. In the event of increasing risks in the retail lending segment..." the statement said.