Government analysis shows the economic boost from a Heathrow third runway could be a tiny fraction of previous estimates, with overall losses reaching up to £62.5bn. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing The Guardian.

According to documents prepared by the Department for Transport, the runway is expected to boost GDP by only up to 0.05% – 90% less than the 0.5% previously stated. One economist described the figures as historically bad.

The DfT calculates the net present value of the scheme, even if entirely privately financed, to be between -£23.4bn and -£62.5bn. This figure incorporates benefits to passengers (£29bn-£42.4bn) and wider economic benefits, but these are outweighed by social and environmental impacts (£58bn-£82bn). Profits at airlines and other airports are expected to fall by about £25bn.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has championed rapid expansion of Heathrow in the name of economic growth, calling it the government's top priority. However, Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the New Economics Foundation, said the government's own analysis shows expansion won't deliver economic benefits.

A DfT spokesperson said net present value is just one part of the picture, and an expanded Heathrow could support over 60,000 new local jobs and deliver £40bn of benefits to the UK. Heathrow said the DfT appraisal model excluded other ways expansion could increase economic competitiveness and did not capture the value of UK trade.

The government announced the next stage in rapid approval of the third runway, with a consultation before a vote by MPs, and ministers promising spades in the ground by 2029. The proposed 3,500-metre runway would divert the M25 motorway and demolish about 800 homes, adding about 276,000 extra flights a year. The scheme is estimated to cost £33bn, although an independent assessment for the Civil Aviation Authority said the project was likely to cost between £32.7bn and £52.4bn.

A DfT health impact assessment showed the third runway could significantly harm the health and wellbeing of up to 3 million people living near Heathrow. The official report said an expanded Heathrow was also likely to worsen access to housing, education, healthcare, open space, and transport, as well as affect water quality and community cohesion.

Liberal Democrat transport spokesperson Olly Glover said Labour cannot show how Heathrow expansion squares with climate commitments.