The average dollar rate in 2027 will be 499.6 tenge, according to participants in the National Bank's macroeconomic survey. In August, their forecast was noticeably higher — 516.2 tenge. Experts also improved their expectations for the national currency for 2026 and 2028, according to the survey results. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
Forecast for 2026
For 2026, analysts lowered their estimate of the average annual rate from 490 to 479 tenge per dollar. This is a notable change compared to previous forecasts.
Forecast for 2028
For 2028 — from 562.2 to 527.1 tenge. It was at the far horizon that the revision proved most significant: the difference amounted to 35.1 tenge.
Meaning of the indicators
All these indicators refer to the average rate for the corresponding year. They do not mean that the dollar will cost the same at the end of December or on a specific day.
Survey participants
The October survey involved 14 organizations, including professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations and rating agencies.
"The macroeconomic survey does not contain forecasts of the National Bank," the regulator emphasized.
The results reflect independent assessments and expectations of market participants.
Previous forecasts
Earlier, Kursiv wrote that in August survey participants had already lowered the forecast for the dollar rate for 2027 — from 532.1 to 516.2 tenge. The estimate for 2026 was then revised from 500 to 490 tenge, and for 2028 — from 566.6 to 562.2 tenge. The October survey continued this trend.
Assessments by different organizations
At the same time, assessments by different organizations diverge. On October 13, Kursiv reported on the forecast of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development: its economists expected an average rate of 482 tenge per dollar in 2026 and a weakening of the national currency to 523 tenge in 2027.