High bank deposit rates have made buying apartments for rent less attractive for investors in Kazakhstan. With capital from 10 to 30 million tenge, bank deposits can now provide higher current returns than rental real estate. Nevertheless, buying housing remains an interesting option if the property can be purchased at a significant discount to market value. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing Kursiv Media.
This assessment was presented by Vitaliy Shalaev, Managing Director of Arbat Real Estate and an expert in premium real estate. A specialist with more than 20 years of experience in the real estate market, he compared the potential returns of deposits and apartments using the example of investments of 10, 30 and 50 million tenge.
In October 2026, the base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan is 16.25% per annum. At the beginning of the year, the figure was at 18%, but even after the rate cut, bank deposit rates remain high.
According to the BankInfo Deposit Index, at the end of September the index of the best annual rates on tenge deposits of ten banks was 16.11%. Some short-term three-month deposits offered returns of up to 19-20% per annum.
Against this background, buying an apartment for rent no longer looks like an unconditionally profitable decision. Investors have to consider not only rental income but also repair costs, housing maintenance, taxes, vacancy periods and possible changes in property value.
According to Shalaev, the advantage of deposits also lies in the ability to keep capital available for new investment decisions. Early withdrawal conditions depend on the specific banking product.
With 10 million tenge, the expert considers it more rational to place funds in a short-term tenge deposit. As a benchmark, he considers three-month deposits with rates of 18-20% per annum, if such offers are available at banks.
At a yield of 18% per annum, placing 10 million tenge for three months will bring approximately 450,000 tenge. If the rate is 20%, the calculated income will increase to 500,000 tenge. These amounts are calculated without capitalization of interest.
It is worth noting that 20% per annum does not mean that the depositor will receive a fifth of the capital in three months. The actual return for the quarter under such a simplified calculation will be about 5%.
Buying an investment apartment in Almaty with a budget of 10 million tenge, according to Shalaev's estimate, will require additional financing. These funds can be used as a down payment on a mortgage or directed toward purchasing housing under construction, but both options involve additional risks.
A short-term deposit allows postponing the decision to buy real estate and waiting for more attractive offers. At the same time, the investor must take into account restrictions on early withdrawal and possible changes in rates after the deposit term ends.
An amount of 30 million tenge already allows considering the purchase of a small apartment for rent. However, calculations show that at current deposit rates, a bank deposit can provide higher income without the costs of maintaining real estate.
As an example, Shalaev cites an apartment worth 30 million tenge that can be rented out for 250,000 tenge per month. Over a year, the owner will receive 3 million tenge, which corresponds to a 10% gross yield.
If an apartment costs 35 million tenge and is rented out for 270,000 tenge, the annual rental revenue will be 3.24 million tenge. The yield in this case will decrease to approximately 9.3% per annum.
The indicated amounts do not take into account the owner's expenses. After paying for repairs, housing maintenance, taxes and possible periods without tenants, the actual yield will be lower.
For comparison, a deposit of 30 million tenge at a conditional rate of 18% per annum can bring 5.4 million tenge per year. This is 2.4 million tenge more than the gross rental income of an apartment worth 30 million tenge.
However, such a result is possible only if the 18% rate is maintained throughout the year. When placing funds for short terms, the conditions for subsequent extension may change.
Shalaev also does not rule out a decline in the value of certain properties on the secondary housing market in 2027. This is the expert's forecast, not a confirmed trend for the future period.
With capital of 50 million tenge, the expert recommends considering real estate primarily if there is a significant discount. According to his estimate, in the Almaty market one can look for apartments at a discount of 10-15% relative to the justified market value.
An apartment worth 50 million tenge, rented out for 350,000-370,000 tenge per month, can bring from 4.2 million to 4.44 million tenge annually. The gross rental yield of such a property will be approximately 8.4-8.9%, and the estimated payback period without taking expenses into account will reach 11-12 years.
If a similar apartment can be purchased for 42.5-45 million tenge, the figures will change. While maintaining the same rent, the return on invested capital will be approximately 9.3-10.5% per annum, and the payback period will be reduced to about ten years.
According to Shalaev, an acceptable benchmark for investment real estate is a payback period of 10-12 years. At the same time, the specialist recommends evaluating not only rental income but also the prospects for changes in the market value of the property.
While there is no suitable apartment, a bank deposit remains an alternative. At a conditional rate of 18% per annum, placing 50 million tenge can provide a calculated income of 9 million tenge per year, if the corresponding conditions are maintained throughout the entire period.
According to Arbat Real Estate's observations, the Almaty real estate market is gradually becoming more favorable for buyers. In the company's practice, one active buyer may have eight to nine competing apartment offers.
According to Shalaev, the increase in choice allows buyers to discuss the price more actively and achieve concessions from sellers. This especially applies to owners interested in selling real estate within limited timeframes. In such situations, the discount can reach 10-15%.