As Andy Burnham enters No 10, Guardian data analysis reveals the fissures with Labour’s traditional supporters, and the traps the new PM will want to avoid. This was reported by Qazaqyia.kz citing The Guardian.
Keir Starmer entered 10 Downing St on a wave of optimism after a landslide victory in the 2024 general election. His Labour party had overturned a defeat in 2019 in which the party crashed to its worst result since 1935. Labour won 412 seats, just a few shy of the 418 won by Tony Blair in 1997, a result that gave Labour a leader in office for a decade.
But a little more than two years after he came to power, Starmer’s tenure is over. Over the past 24 months the popularity of the human-rights lawyer turned prime minister has plummeted, from a net approval rating of -3 when he took office, to -66 by September 2025 – the lowest net approval rating recorded by Ipsos for any prime minister since 1977.
As Andy Burnham takes over, Guardian data analysis reveals where Starmer lost support – among the ranks of his own MPs and among the electorate – and provides some insight about the bear traps Burnham’s team will want to avoid.
When the Labour party was formed at the turn of the 20th century, it was synonymous with the trade union movement. But over the last half century the relationship has become increasingly strained, with the chart below revealing a steady decline in union donations over the past 20 years. But the chart also reveals that a fracture that opened under Neil Kinnock, and widened with Blair, continued to worsen under Starmer, reaching its lowest point for any full year in 2025.
Starmer ran into trouble with the unions, 11 of which are affiliated to Labour, soon after becoming leader in 2020. In 2022 the then leader of the opposition sacked the frontbencher Sam Tarry for doing broadcast interviews from a rail strike picket line. A year later, Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite, put Starmer “on notice”, saying the support of Britain’s second-largest union should not be treated as a “blank cheque”. As a row about bin strikes in Birmingham turned increasingly acrimonious, Unite suspended the membership of the then deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, and in March this year it reduced its membership fees to Labour by more than half a million pounds.
Unions hailed a “generational shift” for workers’ rights when Starmer’s government pushed through its employment rights bill, but there seemed to be little real warmth between the prime minister and union leaders. Two other major unions, the GMB and Prospect, who between them represent tens of thousands of energy workers, criticised Starmer’s net zero policies, while a recent poll said support for Labour and Reform UK was tied at 28% among trade union members, suggesting a 20-point drop in union backing for Labour since the 2024 general election.
How is Burnham going to turn it around? He has not always had a comfortable relationship with trade unions. Standing for the Labour leadership after the 2015 election loss, Burnham refused union funds and emphasised his fiscal discipline, but lost heavily to Jeremy Corbyn.
But during this campaign he met union leaders at the headquarters of the public sector union Unison and used his first speech to call for “greater public control of essential services”, a long-cherished union aim. Burnham is, according to one union leader, “in listening mode”.
However, one potential flashpoint has already emerged: Burnham’s choice for chancellor. Unite and the GMB, who represent oil and gas workers, have been openly critical of the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who had until recently been seen as a favourite for the role, whereas Unison has backed him, and will be disappointed should he be denied the role. When eight of the affiliated unions backed Burnham, he said he was “deeply grateful” for the unified support. He will now be keen to keep it.
The conflict between Israel and Palestine has long been a divisive issue within Labour. The party has supported the creation of the state of Israel since its inception, but it has been more critical of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza under a series of hardline rightwing leaders.
Since Starmer took office few topics have triggered more ire in his critics. Perhaps in part because of his efforts to stamp out antisemitism in the Labour party, he struggled when the most recent conflict began.
Soon after Hamas launched a devastating attack on Israel in October 2023, Starmer gave an interview saying Israel had “the right” to withhold power and water from Gaza. When some councillors left the party as a result, a senior Labour source was quoted as saying it was a sign the party was “shaking off the fleas”.
Starmer’s team attempted to clarify his LBC remarks, but the interview had a disastrous impact both on his support among some of his backbenchers and, crucially, among Muslim voters, long seen as one of Labour’s staunchest bases of support.
In January 2024, Starmer’s office was polling Muslim voters and finding cause for concern. By February, Starmer had backed a ceasefire, and then in September last year the government formally recognised Palestine as an independent state.
A Savanta poll in June 2024 found that 63% of British Muslims were likely to support Labour in the general election the following month, but a recent poll, by JL Partners for Policy Exchange, found 60% would now consider voting for Gaza-supporting independents to stop the party, while around half would consider voting Green for the same reason. The Green leader, Zack Polanski, has taken an avowedly pro-Palestinian stance, describing Israel’s military actions as a “genocide in Gaza” and a campaign of “collective punishment”.